Forex

Forex Trading Updates

2274

April 14, 2017

Week of 3/14/17

Here is the weekly update on my forex trading:

OANDA Corporation. (2017). OANDA fxTrade Forex Trading (Version 5.4.0) [Mobile Application Software]. Retrieved from https://www.oanda.com/mobile/

It looks like my strategy is working better; EUR/TRY, GBP/AUD, GBP/USD and USD/TRY are in the green and GBP/CAD and USD/MXN are in the red. Of the two in the red, the GBP/CAD position is barely down. USD/MXN, however, continues to do poorly.

Let’s take a look at the chart:

FOREX.com. (2017). Forex Trader for Iphone (Version 2.9.12) [Mobile Application Software]. Retrieved from https://www.forex.com/en-us/services/trading-platforms/forextrader/mobile-apps

I know I keep saying this, but I’m going to keep the position open. Maybe I’m being foolish, but the trend over the past three years is so clearly upwards and I’m not convinced that a three month downturn is a change in trend.

New Trades

From today’s charts I found the following two currency pairs that are looking good.

FOREX.com. (2017). Forex Trader for Iphone (Version 2.9.12) [Mobile Application Software]. Retrieved from https://www.forex.com/en-us/services/trading-platforms/forextrader/mobile-apps

I opened a 10,000 short position on EUR/DKK and a 10,000 long position on EUR/GBP. Let’s see what happens next week.

Week of 3/5/17

Last week I missed my weekly status because I was traveling to Honolulu. It’s a good thing because I would have been disappointed as I am today. Here’s the current status of my forex trades:

OANDA Corporation. (2017). OANDA fxTrade Forex Trading (Version 5.4.0) [Mobile Application Software]. Retrieved from https://www.oanda.com/mobile/

It’s not looking good so let’s take a look at the charts and see what’s going on.

GDP/CAD

FOREX.com. (2017). Forex Trader for Iphone (Version 2.9.12) [Mobile Application Software]. Retrieved from https://www.forex.com/en-us/services/trading-platforms/forextrader/mobile-apps

The trend still looks like it will continue downward. I’m hoping I’ll be out of the red soon and will keep the position open.

USD/MXN

FOREX.com. (2017). Forex Trader for Iphone (Version 2.9.12) [Mobile Application Software]. Retrieved from https://www.forex.com/en-us/services/trading-platforms/forextrader/mobile-apps

This position is where most of my losses are centered. It looks like the trend may be changing, but I’m not positive; therefore, I will keep the position for a bit longer. If I were trading with real money I would find it really difficult to make this decision. Here is the hard part of my current strategy, if I want to make a profit I have to find a trend and stick with it through good and bad. This may mean there are periods where I will have substantial losses and these losses can be very hard to deal with.

USD/TRY

FOREX.com. (2017). Forex Trader for Iphone (Version 2.9.12) [Mobile Application Software]. Retrieved from https://www.forex.com/en-us/services/trading-platforms/forextrader/mobile-apps

This trend looks like it will continue upwards despite the dip that put me in the red. Again, I’m hopeful I will be in profit soon and am going to keep the position open.

Offsetting Losses

I think the mistake I am making is that I have not been opening enough positions. Since I just started my practice account, I am currently in the phase of scoping out winning trends and I do not have any older positions in profit to offset the losses associated with newer positions. I don’t think it is uncommon to have a number of new positions that are in the red; after all, just because a currency pair appears to have a strong trend when I open it does not mean that the position will follow this trend in the short-term. Because it is impossible to truly predict the future, it’s still a matter of chance whether any one position will be in profit or loss in the initial period after opening. I think the solution is to open many trades at once in order to have a balance of positions in the green and in the red. Therefore I am going to open a couple of new positions this week and see if this helps. Here are the charts I’ve the pairs I’ve selected:

FOREX.com. (2017). Forex Trader for Iphone (Version 2.9.12) [Mobile Application Software]. Retrieved from https://www.forex.com/en-us/services/trading-platforms/forextrader/mobile-apps

Today’s Trades

GBP/AUD – short 10000 pips

GBP/USD – short 10000 pips

EUR/TRY – long 10000 pips

Week of 2/18/17

Last weekend I made my first three forex trades. Here is how they are doing this weekend:

OANDA Corporation. (2017). OANDA fxTrade Forex Trading (Version 5.4.0) [Mobile Application Software]. Retrieved from https://www.oanda.com/mobile/

The first two trades seem to be doing very well; USD/TRY is struggling though. I took a look at the USD/TRY chart again:

FOREX.com. (2017). Forex Trader for Iphone (Version 2.9.12) [Mobile Application Software]. Retrieved from https://www.forex.com/en-us/services/trading-platforms/forextrader/mobile-apps

It doesn’t look to me like the trend has changed even though the pair is in red at the moment. You can see from the chart that in 2014 and 2016 there were other dips (in red) that were greater than the current one. With the information I currently have, I do not believe that the 7 year trend has changed. I am willing to lose some money right now in order to keep the position.

Long-Term Trading Risks

Currency pairs do not follow straight up or down lines, as you can see from the USD/TRY example above. There are always going to be times when a particular position is losing value, even if it will make money over the long-term. Imagine if I had opened the USD/TRY trade in 2013, by 2014 the position would have lost a great deal of its value and I may have been tempted to close the position. However, if I had decided to keep the trade through to the present, I would have made a much larger return on my initial trade than I could have if I had closed 2014. I am hoping this will be the case with my current USD/TRY trade. Let’s see what happens.